Sunday 19 March 2023

The Inflation Data Caused Mystery for the Future of the Economy

The release of new data in the US has caused concern about inflation to increase, leading to a decrease in risk appetite in the markets. The data revealed that personal consumption expenditures rose more than expected in January. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, also exceeded expectations with a monthly increase of 0.6% and an annual increase of 4.7%.

As a result, it is expected that the Fed will increase interest rates by 75 basis points in the near future, with increases of 25 basis points in March, May, and June. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen to its highest level since November 2022, while recession pricing has lost momentum. The difference between the US 3-month Treasury bill yields and the 10-year Treasury bond yield has hit its lowest point since January 5. The US dollar index has risen due to expectations of a 75-basis point interest rate hike by the Fed, completing the week at 105.2, its highest level since the week of November 21.

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